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08/19/11 - 01:05pm
Jeter's Sizzling; Is .300 doable?by Mark Simon and Katie Sharp, ESPN New YorkDerek Jeter is now hitting .290. Wednesday, Jeter had his fifth game of the season in which he's had at least four hits. That matches the most four-hit games he's ever had in a season, done during his prime years of 1998 and 2000. What has led to this rejuvenation? Others in the Yankees blogosphere have looked into this in a couple of different ways over the last 24 hours. We'll add a few numbers to their measures. Jeter is hitting left-handers like almost nobody else. He's 21-for-43 with five doubles and two home runs against lefties since his return from injury. That's raised his batting average against lefties from .299 to .373, third-best in the majors, trailing two pretty good hitters -- Dustin Pedroia and Joey Votto.
He's also been able to handle his biggest bugaboo -- the changeup -- better than he had previously. In the first two-and-a-half months, Jeter made 22 outs when an at-bat ended with a changeup and had just one hit. In the last six weeks, he's made 21 outs against changeups, but he has five hits. Jeter has been able to do some things with pitches in odd spots. He has more hits in the last six weeks on pitches out of the strike zone (9) than he had on those same pitches over the first two-and-a-half months of the season (8).
Jeter's also been able to pull the ball at a rate far better than usual -- more than one-third of his hits (35 percent) during this run have been instances in which he's pulled the ball. Prior that, his rate of pulled base hits was 22 percent.
Let's say Jeter finished the season with 575 at-bats (he's at 411 now, so that's a realistic number). If so, he'd need to hit .329 the rest of the way to reach the .300 mark. The hardest things for Jeter to sustain will be his batting average on the fly balls he hits within the field of play (ie: those that aren't home runs) and that prodigious line drive rate. During this streak, when Jeter hits a fly ball that stays in the park, he's 7-for-15. That's unusual not just for most major leaguers, but for Jeter as well. Statistically speaking, if Jeter hits 15 fly balls that stay in the park, he'll typically get three hits, maybe four. Seven is a bit high. A return to his pre-established norms over his next 15 fly balls would cost him three to four hits. When chasing .300 at season's end, three to four hits is significant. The other thing to keep in mind is that a line drive rate of nearly 27 percent is VERY hard to maintain. Over the last four seasons, according to the data on Fangraphs.com, Jeter has had a line drive rate ranging from 16 to 20 percent. A reduction in his line drive rate, even if Jeter were to get hits on 70 to 75 percent of those (since his return, he's 22-for-34 when hitting a line drive), would also likely knock him down a peg or two. To get to .300, Jeter is going to have to keep this up, or something very similar to it, for another six weeks. Statistically unlikely? Yes.
ORIGINAL STORY
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